SoFi reports earnings on Monday morning. The stock has been on an absolute tear, as it finally gets rewarded for fundamental execution and as the macro backdrop turns favorable. Over the last 90 days, the stock has moved from roughly $10 to $18 per share while earnings estimates have remained largely flat. That has quickly pushed the PEG ratio from a bit over 0.5x to now nearly 0.9x. It’s still cheap – especially for a fundamental winner like it is – but it’s also more fairly priced than it has been in a long time.

While I think that’s entirely deserved, I also think the stock could easily shrug off what I expect to be strong earnings and guidance next week. I think the quarter will need to be perfect and then some to enjoy another short-term pop from here, but I don’t really care if that comes.

All I care about is that the company continues to masterfully execute, shows brisk margin-accretive growth, successfully expands the product suite, surgically manages the balance sheet, boasts a stellar leadership… and marches towards or beyond its 2026 targets. As long as the data continues to look as good as it has, I do not care if the stock sells off in the short-term.

I did not hedge heading into this earnings report with options. As you know, I sparingly do that and was a bit tempted to here. I decided against it. I think it makes sense to just sit tight, avoid the tax event and continue to embrace the sharp volatility for this name. If they execute remotely as well as they have, it will be much larger in a few years than it is now. That’s what matters. Not if it goes higher or lower on Monday. Focus on the data.

I’ll have the rest of the earnings season portfolio preview sent to you guys next week (before Meta reports).

Reply

Avatar

or to participate

Keep Reading