I boosted my Uber stake by 15% today. Profit estimates should modestly to rise following its earnings and the stock has materially fallen since I last trimmed. Multiple compression is improving overall risk/reward while this company continues to execute extremely well. I’m also modestly more comfortable about its autonomous vehicle positioning than I’ve been in the past.
I thought the report today was mostly positive and I want to take advantage of this volatility. The review of the earnings report will come tonight (with SBUX, AAPL & AMZN) to offer more thorough detail on the data and commentary. For now, here’s the brief snapshot, my updated portfolio & return data:
a. Uber Snapshot
Results:
Missed bookings estimate by 0.5% & met guidance.
Mobility missed by 1.9%; Delivery slightly beat; Freight beat by 0.8%.
Beat revenue estimate by 2.0%. All three segments beat by a similar amount.
Beat monthly active platform consumer (MAPC) estimates by 1 million.
Beat EBITDA estimate by 3.0% & beat guidance by 3.7%. Mobility & delivery beat. Freight missed.
Beat GAAP EBIT estimates by 6.0%.
Large GAAP EPS beat driven by equity investment valuation gains. Beat FCF estimates by about 50%. This is lumpy on a quarterly basis. The GAAP EBIT & EBITDA beats are what to focus on.
Q4 Guide:
Slightly missed gross bookings estimates by 0.3%.
Slightly missed EBITDA estimates by 0.6%.
Balance Sheet:
$9B in cash & equivalents; $7.9B in unrestricted equity investments vs. $6B Y/Y. $6.5 billion in restricted equity investments.
$11B in total debt.
Diluted share count rose by 6% Y/Y.
