a. Updated Performance vs. the S&P 500

Overall:

Year-to-date:

b. Changes

I boosted my Meta stake by 16%. I thought the quarter was excellent. Growth is elite and quarterly disclosures on AI boosting core engagement and monetization make me highly confident in CapEx returns being strong. They now actually have a good model to use for Meta AI (and eventually their ad ranking systems) and their Smartglasses business is firing on all cylinders. Their pursuit of personal agents and superintelligence for their billions of users resonates with me and creates abundant opportunity for monetization down the road. People have always questioned Meta's ability to turn traffic into profit. They did when Facebook was scaling. They did when Reels was expanding. They did for WhatsApp up until very recently. And they will here. Time and time again, Zuck has proven the doubters wrong, and I think the signs of that happening again are even more obvious than they've been in the past.

If I'm wrong? They have considerable flexibility to allocate excess compute to their core business for more progress and can always cut back on CapEx plans and watch FCF explode higher. That's a great plan b. I think the company is in great shape and am happy to add to my stake here. Like Mercado Libre, Amazon and Alphabet, if this continues to aggressively sell-off I will get even more aggressively long.

My full earnings review from last night can be found here.

c. Portfolio Management Strategy

*the order of the names in these lists below is meaningless.

My holdings that are performing & compellingly priced where I'd accumulate into modest multiple contraction:

  • Amazon

  • Meta

  • Mercado Libre

  • Zscaler

  • ServiceNow

  • Nu

  • Coupang

  • Axon

  • Rubrik

  • Lemonade

  • Uber

  • Snowflake

My holdings that are performing & expensive where I'd accumulate into meaningful multiple contraction:

  • Alphabet

  • Shopify

  • CrowdStrike

I don't consider SoFi expensive (it's cheap in my view), but I am accumulating shares in this company more slowly than I normally would due to the various cracks forming across private credit.

Watch List:

  • Starbucks

  • Spotify

  • Sea Limited

  • The Trade Desk

  • MongoDB

  • On

  • Cava

"If you were starting a portfolio today, what would it look like?"

  • 11% Amazon

  • 11% Meta

  • 9% Mercado Libre

  • 8% Alphabet

  • 6% Zscaler

  • 6% ServiceNow

  • 6% Lemonade

  • 6% Coupang

  • 6% Rubrik

  • 5% SoFi

  • 5% Nu

  • 5% Uber

  • 4% Axon

  • 3% Shopify

  • 3% Snowflake

  • 3% CrowdStrike

  • 3% cash

d. Updated Holdings

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