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Table of Contents
a. Performance
Overall performance:


Year-to-date:

b. Transactions
Today was a busy day for the portfolio as enterprise software continues to aggressively sell off:
24% Shopify add (first in a long time)
10% ServiceNow add
10% Zscaler add
10% Lemonade add
17% Axon add
10% Rubrik add
New positions in Snowflake and CrowdStrike
My conviction in these names does not sour just because the stocks fall a little bit more. Actually, the opposite happens. I fixate on the fundamental health of these names. I track all of their developments. I know how they're all doing. I get all the sell-side channel check reports, and I do not miss a single interview. I am confident that I know these companies better than the anonymous keyboard warriors on social media, talking about how they're all doomed. So? When price and fundamentals become more detached, I lean in.
It is the time for me to keep trusting my research, trusting my background, and focusing on fundamental prospects, rather than immediate price action. I am undoubtedly frustrated, just like I'm sure most of you are right now. I will just continue to force myself to embrace the robotic investor in me over the emotional human. I can complain, or I can take advantage and zoom out. I choose to do the latter.
And while I am confident, I also remain very open-minded. I am eagerly looking for signs that I am wrong. I will be looking for those signs in earnings reports and forward-looking demand metrics like backlog and pipeline development. And if I see them? I will be quicker to part ways with a specific enterprise software name than I normally am. I'll be faster to cut and reallocate into the other existing enterprise software names I own. There's so much change currently unfolding and some companies will be left behind. It's possible I am wrong about who some of the winners and losers are, and virtually all of the names are cheap right now. So? If 6 of the 7 are thriving and 1 isn't... I'll cut the 1 and add more to the 6. As of right now, I do not see any signs to warrant this change, so I continue to add to all 7.
As briefly mentioned, I added two more enterprise software names to the portfolio today. CrowdStrike re-entered and Snowflake joined it for the very first time. To make room for these transactions, I cut the rest of my CAVA and ONON stakes. I continue to be very confident in both of those companies. I just see risk/reward meaningfully improving from an already compelling point in these two world-class names, and I feel highly compelled to pounce. Again... in my opinion... enterprise software hasn't given investors a better opportunity in several years. I want to capitalize.
CrowdStrike remains somewhat expensive (1.48x FCF growth multiple), but I do not think there's another enterprise software name on the planet with a higher probability of compounding at a 20%+ clip for a very long time than this one. This will not be traditionally cheap when the software sell-off finally ends, just like Shopify and Axon won't be traditionally cheap for similar reasons. People pay for longevity, visibility, and certainty. This company offers all three of those things in droves.
In addition to CrowdStrike, Axon, and Shopify, I think Snowflake has a very strong opportunity to compound above a 20% clip for the next several years, and I think it's not currently being rewarded for that high probability. This is a great company trading at a 1.14x FCF growth multiple.
This is adding exposure to two more infrastructure software names, where I view defensibility against AI threats as higher than the application side of the software market. Still, I did accumulate shares in ServiceNow, which is a bit of a hybrid at this point, because I am so confident in the overarching product suite that the company offers. Furthermore, the unique value and data it provides within each workflow it's automating cannot be vibe coded away like a pretty user interface. They are not nearly as helpless or challenged as markets currently think.
If you're looking for me to call a bottom, I do not do that. I simply take advantage and react methodically as markets create new opportunities. These new opportunities are more compelling than they've been in several years. In terms of cash availability, as I've been talking about in the Discord, I have another small chunk coming to the account sometime in the next couple weeks when I close on a minority stake sale of my company. That's currently worth 3.1% of total holdings.
c. Portfolio Management Strategy
*the order of the names in these lists below is meaningless.
My holdings that are performing & compellingly priced where I'd accumulate into modest multiple contraction:
Amazon
Meta
Mercado Libre
Zscaler
ServiceNow
Nu
Coupang
Axon
Rubrik
Lemonade
Uber
My holdings that are performing & expensive where I'd accumulate into meaningful multiple contraction:
Alphabet
Shopify
I don't consider SoFi expensive (it's cheap in my view), but I am accumulating shares in this company more slowly than I normally would due to the various cracks forming across private credit.
Watch List:
Starbucks
Sea Limited
Netflix
The Trade Desk
MongoDB
On
Cava
"If you were starting a portfolio today, what would it look like?"
10% Amazon
10% Meta
8% Mercado Libre
7% Alphabet
7% Zscaler
7% ServiceNow
6% Lemonade
6% Coupang
6% Rubrik
5% SoFi
5% Nu
5% Uber
4% Axon
3% Shopify
3% Snowflake
3% CrowdStrike
d. Holdings

