Updated Performance vs. the S&P 500:

Portfolio Changes and Updated Holdings:

As discussed in the Discord, I've been seriously contemplating adding quantum puts to the portfolio as a hedge against market exposure. I view those names as egregiously priced and low-quality and am confident that the sector bubble will eventually pop.

At the same time, I'm leaning towards not doing this. I would have to allocate a significant portion of my remaining cash for profits to be a meaningful enough offset to rest-of-portfolio declines amid any correction. If I kept the hedge at 1%-2% of holdings like I'd want to, those offsets would be small.

I also have very little feel for when the ridiculousness will end, and early in this case is the same thing as wrong. I can make timing less important by choosing longer-dated expirations, but I can still lose a considerable amount of money while that unfolds. And finally, it does feel risky to be adding bearish high-beta exposure as the fed gears up to cut rates and considering every meaningless press release these firms come out with leads to large price spikes. I might revisit this idea in the future when the names start to give up moving averages and show signs of running out of momentum, but that hasn't happened yet.

For now, I will continue to manage risk by lightening up on the most expensive names in the portfolio and adding to cheaper, more defensive names. Today, that entailed cutting another 28% of my Shopify position and shifting some of that equity into Amazon.

With Shopify FCF and net income growth multiples both over 3x and its sales multiple 50% above the 3-year average, I think this is nearing "priced for perfection" territory (if not there already). I would absolutely and selfishly love a meaningful correction to accumulate shares of this special company and will continue to take advantage of breathtakingly sharp forward valuation swings to trim/accumulate as I see fit. I've done that several times with this name in the past, and it has been a uniformly winning strategy thus far.

And for Amazon, I think sentiment is beginning to detach from reality:

• An AWS growth acceleration feels inevitable as Anthropic capacity comes online and their backlog growth remains excellent.
• Their progress in high-performance chips and agentic software is palpable.
• Their marketplace is better equipped to handle fluid tariff policy than any competitor.
• Robotics investments boosting fulfillment margins are in the top of the first inning.
• Its ads business is exploding.
• Assortment and subscription-fueled engagement growth still has plenty of runway
• Front-loaded Kuiper investments are about to start generating real revenue and Zoox is progressing nicely.
• All of this is true while it trades 12 turns below its 3-year average EBIT multiple and with 2025 EBIT estimates up 6% year-to-date despite incremental tariff headwinds. I think it's time to lean in – despite this already being a large holding.

Updated Holdings: